New Poll Shows Jokowi With Solid Lead Over Prabowo Heading Into Final Weekend

View the complete findings here.

(JAKARTA, INDONESIA, April 12—) A new survey shows current Indonesian President Joko Widodo with a commanding 14-point lead over his rival, Prabowo Subianto.

The survey, which was conducted April 1-4, shows President Jokowi leading Prabowo among all likely voters by a margin of 47 percent to 33 percent, with 20 percent either undecided or refusing to answer. He also leads among those who are definitely going to vote by an even larger margin of 15 percent.

STG conducted 5,235 telephone interviews in every region of Indonesia. The survey has a margin of error of 1.4 percentage points.

The survey comes on the heels of an additional poll conducted by the same organization on March 23-24 which showed the president leading Prabowo by 19 percentage points on the question of, Who would be a better president?

The March 2019 survey also shows Jokowi with strong marks on the economy, with 77 percent saying his economic stewardship of Indonesia has been excellent, very good, or good.

“This is exactly where Jokowi wants to be heading into the final weekend,” said STG CEO Dan Kanninen. “Strong approval on the issue Indonesians care most about [economy], strong approval on job performance, it’s no surprise that he’s leading with every demographic. He’s in a strong position to have a good night on Wednesday.”


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About the surveys

The telephone surveys were conducted by Meta Data & Research Indonesia, a respected Indonesian survey research firm whose clients include DuPont, Bank Indonesia, Ipsos, Nestle, GFK, Nikon and Bank BTPN.

Both surveys were designed and analyzed by Andrew Claster, Deputy Chief Analytics Officer for U.S. President Barack Obama’s successful 2012 re-election campaign.


About Andrew Claster

Claster helped create the Invoke Malaysia team that conducted the only survey that accurately predicted a Pakatan Harapan victory in Malaysia’s 2018 election. Claster has conducted research in more than 20 countries including the US, UK, Canada, Mexico, Dominican Republic, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, France, Japan, South Korea, Turkey, Italy, Finland, Brazil, South Africa, and Egypt.